While Manchester United should temper their excitement over Sunday’s 2-1 victory against Liverpool, Harry Maguire’s remarks reveal how significant this long-awaited win is for the club’s morale. The Red Devils frequently express the importance of being part of Manchester United, and Maguire has absorbed these sentiments from various leaders throughout his time there. For many at the club, returning to the status of a legitimate contender would restore a sense of equilibrium.
Defeating a historic rival in dramatic fashion certainly contributes to that feeling.
“In the lead-up, you see highlights of Juan Mata’s and Wayne Rooney’s goals that clinched victories for our club at Liverpool,” Maguire shared. “I’m confident that in a few years, we’ll look back fondly on my header.”
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“Football is about creating unforgettable memories. I’m sure every fan in the stadium will cherish this one. We won’t get carried away, as we know the club needs to stay grounded. We should use this as motivation to aim for the standards we’ve reached in recent years.”
Mentally, United seem to be in a positive place. Their owner faced a challenging year, but securing Ruben Amorim as manager has proven successful. While Amorim knows he is secure, leadership had to navigate external pressures until results began aligning more closely with the club’s prestigious history. So far, things are looking decent.
Statistically, United may be further along than many realize. Without European commitments this season and typically only a single match each week, there’s a significant opportunity at hand. But will they seize it? And how substantial is this opportunity?
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Harry Maguire reflects on Manchester United’s landmark victory against Liverpool in Matchweek 8.
To ensure clarity, this analysis is driven by numbers, not intuition. It was designed before the game but articulated only after the final whistle. Would it have been drafted following a humiliating 3-0 defeat? Perhaps, but since United emerged victorious, claiming those vital points feels more than deserved.
Consider the following: Manchester United has faced the third-toughest schedule in the first eight weeks, surpassed only by West Ham and Liverpool. In spite of this:
- Under Amorim’s guidance, they’ve amassed an 89-54 advantage in shot attempts during open play across their eight games. Yet, they’ve allowed 10 goals while netting only six, resulting in a -4 goal differential despite a +3.32 xG differential (Understat).
- They produced the second-highest expected goals (xG) total across all game phases, achieving 15.3 xG, ranking higher than Man City and only behind Crystal Palace. However, their expected goals against has been notably poor, placing them 18th.
- Bruno Fernandes’ transition to a deeper midfield role has impacted their defense, yet it has highlighted his excellent playmaking abilities, as evidenced by his 22 created chances—five more than any other player this season.
- United excels in advancing the ball into the penalty area, ranking fifth, positioned closely between second and seventh (with Man City leading significantly).
- Bryan Mbeumo’s finishing had been lackluster before his early goal against Liverpool, but he entered Sunday’s match with the seventh-most touches in the attacking third and eighth-most within the opposition’s 18-yard box.
There are also concerns. United’s defensive metrics are lacking, and their one-on-one situations aren’t generating opportunities. This generally signifies that their system is facilitating ball movement to players in advantageous positions, with Amorim’s squad ranking among the top for long-distance completions, but creativity tends to rely on teamwork rather than individual brilliance.
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So, what is their potential? Many factors need to align, but finishing in the top five isn’t an unreasonable expectation if they leverage their upcoming matches through early January.
The challenging early matchups mean that the remaining eleven teams, which they will face twice, aren’t particularly threatening. Also, their recent humiliating exit from the League Cup against Grimsby Town offers a silver lining: they have no competitions aside from the Premier League until the FA Cup starts in mid-January.
Here are Manchester United’s next 13 fixtures, during a period when many of their European competitors will be juggling European schedules:
- Saturday vs Brighton
- Nov. 1 at Nottingham Forest
- Nov. 8 at Spurs
- Nov. 24 vs Everton
- Nov. 30 at Crystal Palace
- December 4 vs West Ham
- December 8 at Wolves
- December 15 vs Bournemouth
- December 21 at Aston Villa
- December 27 vs Newcastle United
- December 30 vs Wolves
- January 3 at Leeds
- January 7 at Burnley
In the past, recent fourth-placed teams in the Premier League have tallied points ranging from 67 to 71, averaging 69.2.
Let’s set a target of 70 points, which is a significant increase of 28 points from last season’s total. Historically, United has achieved 74 or 75 points over the past five seasons.
United would aim to surpass this pace by the time they play all opponents at least once. Although the math isn’t exact—given that Amorim’s team will have faced Wolves twice before their first match against Leeds—let’s reflect on the situation as of New Year’s Day.
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Can United accumulate 35 or more points by then, setting themselves up favorably for the January transfer window and the possibility of replicating that total over the final 19 matches?
They currently stand at 13 points, so the easiest path is to win eight of the 11 forthcoming games, aiming for about 37 points by December 30 against Wolves.
It’s undeniably a tall order to re-enter the top four with this squad, but an absence of European distractions this season might broaden their horizons. However, this analysis indicates that Amorim’s squad can envision a feasible route to the Europa League or Conference League.
Most betting sites we’ve consulted position United with the sixth-best odds to secure a top four finish, trailing Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Spurs while slightly ahead of Newcastle. This seems reasonable, but again, all teams rated higher than United face more games and possess greater depth.
Is securing fourth place an unattainable goal?