-
Ryan O’Hanlon
The Premier League season is ten games in, confirming our initial expectations: Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool are leading the pack as anticipated. As it stands, those three teams occupy the top spots in the table.
To put it simply, if you’d napped through the Liverpool vs. Bournemouth season opener, you wouldn’t have missed much—except perhaps the chaos surrounding the rest of the league.
Manchester City stumbled out of the gate, losing two of their first three matches. Meanwhile, Liverpool started with five consecutive wins but then experienced an unexpected slump, losing four straight after only having lost a total of four matches all of last season. Bournemouth, having lost a significant portion of their defense to high-profile transfers, now find themselves on par with Liverpool in terms of points, as do the newly promoted Sunderland, who previously finished fourth in the Championship.
The point difference between first-place Arsenal and second-place City mirrors the gap between City and the 12th-place team, Brentford. Even lower in the rankings is Newcastle, currently ahead of Barcelona and Liverpool in the Champions League standings.
This season has taken a surprising turn as, instead of the three promoted teams facing immediate relegation as in recent years, it’s West Ham, Nottingham Forest, and Wolves who are now struggling at the bottom of the table. They have collectively managed only three wins and have caused four managerial dismissals in the process—quite the feat when every other team has secured at least three wins and retained their original coaches.
As we reach the ten-game mark, it is typically when patterns begin to emerge and early randomness gives way to more predictable outcomes. Several studies have shown that a team’s overall performance metrics begin to indicate future results around this point.
So, what insights can we draw from the tumultuous nature of this season thus far? Here are our forecasts for the remaining matches and the anticipated final standings for all 20 Premier League teams.
– Ranked: Top 50 players of Premier League season
– How Arsenal can be stopped from winning the league
– 15 next-generation stars to keep an eye on
Forecasting the Season Ahead
In predicting future outcomes, we will utilize a simpler methodology, primarily for clarity and understanding of the insights derived from it. My preferred metric for projecting future team performance is “adjusted goal differential,” based on Ben Torvaney’s research, which found this composite metric to be the best predictor of future points.
This metric combines 70% expected goals with 30% actual goals, allowing us to evaluate how a team’s performance after ten games correlates with their points over the remainder of the season. Historical data from the last decade reveals that teams at a neutral adjusted goal differential after ten matches can expect about 1.39 points per game thereafter, with each improvement in this metric increasing future expectations by roughly 0.47 points per game.
While ten-game performances yield valuable insights, they’re not exhaustive. The correlation between player salaries and team performance has proven even more significant. Research has indicated that a 10% increase in team value could enhance a season’s points by about 1.5.
These metrics don’t encapsulate everything, but they hold intuitive merit. Adjusted goal differential prioritizes generating quality chances while also factoring in various dynamics that affect performance after scoring. Market values serve as a representation of talent, which remains the primary determinant of team success, as even the most skilled managers recognize. It’s clear that player quality impacts results, particularly when teams underperform collectively.
To determine the weight of these inputs, I referenced betting projections for point totals, considering their high accuracy due to financial incentives involved in sports betting. This led to a weight distribution of 64% for transfer values and 36% for adjusted goal differential.
Here’s how we anticipate the Premier League season will conclude:
• Projected points total: 79.3
• Projected rest of season total (rank): 54.3 (1st)
• Market value (rank): €1.31B (1st)
• Adjusted goal differential (rank): +1.28 (1st)
It’s straightforward: they’ve been the best team with the strongest roster and currently boast a six-point lead over the second place. Per ESPN Bet, their title odds are at -230, reflecting about a 70% implied probability of winning.
If that points total seems modest, it’s due to the conservative nature of these projections. The teams at the extremes—both top and bottom—are likely to achieve more points than indicated.
• Projected points total: 68.6
• Projected rest of season total: 52.6 (2nd)
• Market value: €1.21B (2nd)
• Adjusted goal differential: +0.83 (2nd)
Again, quite simple: they rank second for both performance and roster strength, and they sit in second place currently.
When Erling Haaland scores, they’re typically victorious—six wins, one loss, and one draw. If he doesn’t, they’ve lost twice, underscoring his critical impact.
• Projected points total: 66.2
• Projected rest of season total: 48.2 (3rd)
• Market value: €1.15B (3rd)
• Adjusted goal differential: +0.46 (5th)
Could this squad be more effective against better opponents? They’ve shown a notable correlation between opponent long ball attempts and their own performance levels. In a notable match against Aston Villa, the team faced the lowest proportion of long passes from any Premier League opponent so far this season.
• Projected points total: 65.1
• Projected rest of season total: 48.1 (4th)
• Market value: €1.14B (4th)
• Adjusted goal differential: +0.48 (4th)
Chelsea has both underperformed and overperformed according to these metrics. They’ve faced challenges with red cards leading to reduced player numbers during matches, yet possess a sizeable roster that clouds normalizing market values.
This balance results in their projections being closely aligned with Liverpool’s in the fight for third place.
• Projected points total: 59.6
• Projected rest of season total: 42.6 (5th)
• Market value: €921M (5th)
• Adjusted goal differential: -0.04 (12th)
Tottenham’s position at fifth came as a surprise, given they share point totals with Chelsea, but their projected points seem unexpectedly high. They executed well at home, yet the team’s strengths seem limited to set pieces and goalkeeping.
• Projected points total: 58.0
• Projected rest of season total: 41.0 (7th)
• Market value: €730M (7th)
• Adjusted goal differential: +0.19 (8th)
Despite their transfer decisions pushing for immediate improvements, I had concerns about Tottenham’s long-term title ambitions. A sixth-place finish would be a commendable nine-spot leap from their previous season.
• Projected points total: 56.2
• Projected rest of season total: 38.2 (10th)
• Market value: €448M (12th)
• Adjusted goal differential: +0.15 (9th)
• Projected points total: 55.4
• Projected rest of season total: 39.4 (8th)
• Market value: €485M (11th)
• Adjusted goal differential: +0.59 (3rd)
This analysis combines Bournemouth and Crystal Palace’s standings. Bournemouth leads the table; however, Crystal Palace is statistically the superior team. From a perspective of potential newcomers making an impact in the top five, it’s better that the stronger team has accrued fewer points. Palace’s adjusted goal differential ranks them better than most teams in the league, even though they trail Bournemouth by two points and five spots.
It’s conceivable that fortune allows Bournemouth to remain competitive while Palace’s performances align better with their results. I believe both teams rank favorably compared to United and Spurs.
• Projected points total: 53.8
• Projected rest of season total: 38.8 (9th)
• Market value: €521M (10th)
• Adjusted goal differential: +0.34 (6th)
Brighton’s current roster boasts more experience than in previous seasons, yet this shift toward seasoned players hasn’t translated into better performances or results. Historically, they have thrived under possession-oriented coaches and a penchant for data-driven recruitment, so the lack of excitement amidst the squad’s talent is disheartening.
• Projected points total: 53.6
• Projected rest of season total: 41.6 (6th)
• Market value: €752M (6th)
• Adjusted goal differential: +0.25 (7th)
Newcastle’s ongoing performances raise doubts about their viability; their dominance in ball possession doesn’t always yield victories, as evidenced in their recent match against West Ham.
Although sitting in 10th may seem low, the point gap between Newcastle and Tottenham is narrower than that between Tottenham and Chelsea.
• Projected points total: 52.7
• Projected rest of season total: 34.7 (15th)
• Market value: €340M (18th)
• Adjusted goal differential: +0.01 (11th)
Sunderland, amidst impressive performances, might face tough competition, with upcoming fixtures against Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City. Despite their surprising standings, sustaining this level of performance may be unrealistic.
• Projected points total: 50.5
• Projected rest of season total: 35.5 (12th)
• Market value: €546M (9th)
• Adjusted goal differential: -0.42 (16th)
Villa are walking the fine line of becoming the Premier League’s version of a midtable Manchester United—a squad full of theoretically talented players but with underwhelming performances masked by slightly above-average results.
• Projected points total: 49.0
• Projected rest of season total: 36.0 (11th)
• Market value: €435M (13th)
• Adjusted goal differential: +0.02 (10th)
A noteworthy mention goes to Michael Kayode. His impressive physical capabilities in aerial challenges and throws could rival any top-tier athlete, though his passing remains a weakness.
• Projected points total: 46.8
• Projected rest of season total: 34.8 (14th)
• Market value: €415M (14th)
• Adjusted goal differential: -0.19 (13th)
Under David Moyes, Everton once had a commanding figure controlling all aspects of the club. However, the dynamic has shifted, with indications that Moyes may not have full influence over player signings anymore.
• Projected points total: 44.9
• Projected rest of season total: 33.9 (16th)
• Market value: €374M (17th)
• Adjusted goal differential: -0.25 (15th)
Fulham’s reliance on older, less promising players is starting to show its downsides as they slip down the table. Their tough schedule has highlighted just how challenging their situation has become.
• Projected points total: 44.2
• Projected rest of season total: 33.2 (17th)
• Market value: €316M (19th)
• Adjusted goal differential: -0.23 (14th)
Brenden Aaronson has become a focal point for Leeds, leading in expected attacking contributions. This dynamic raises critical questions for the team about their overall strategy moving forward.
• Projected points total: 41.5
• Projected rest of season total: 35.5 (13th)
• Market value: €645M (8th)
• Adjusted goal differential: -0.72 (18th)
Forest has talent that suggests survival should be feasible, but they must overcome their current perilous position to avoid relegation. The prospect of battling for a place in the Europa League while potentially being sent down emphasizes the rollercoaster of their season.
• Projected points total: 38.8
• Projected rest of season total: 31.8 (19th)
• Market value: €401M (15th)
• Adjusted goal differential: -0.78 (19th)
Under Nuno Espírito Santo, the hope for change is present, but it is hard to envision significant improvements in the team’s fortunes, likely resulting in a battle against relegation moving forward.
• Projected points total: 37.8
• Projected rest of season total: 27.8 (20th)
• Market value: €247M (20th)
• Adjusted goal differential: -1.17 (20th)
Despite managing three wins, they remain the worst-performing side in the league, with dismal metrics in expected goals. The likelihood of Burnley surviving this season appears slim based on their current form.
• Projected points total: 33.9
• Projected rest of season total: 31.9 (18th)
• Market value: €377M (16th)
• Adjusted goal differential: -0.69 (17th)
Ironically, Wolves have a better expected goal differential than Tottenham despite their lowly position. However, translating quality chances into results remains their primary hurdle.