This season, the Premier League boasted nine teams in European competitions. Imagine the excitement if 10 were to qualify!
It’s entirely feasible—here’s a breakdown of how it could happen.
Qualification for European tournaments has grown increasingly intricate in recent years.
One significant factor contributing to this complexity is UEFA’s introduction of European Performance Spots (EPS).
These spots are additional places in the Champions League allocated to the two leagues with the best overall performance each season.
The Premier League has secured one such berth for the 2026-27 season, with the other going to either Spain’s La Liga or Germany’s Bundesliga.
This ensures there will be a minimum of eight English teams competing in Europe next season.
However, what happens if one of these English sides secures victory in one of the European tournaments?
Currently, four English teams remain in contention, with at least one guaranteed a place in the Europa League final.
Could we see six English teams in the Champions League again? Here’s how the Premier League can reach 10 representatives in Europe.
Understanding European Qualification
The EPS mechanism operates on straightforward principles, but various factors add to the complexity.
It consists of two main tenets: it is implemented after all other domestic and European cup winners are considered; and it always provides one additional spot in the overall allocation.
Thus, England was poised to have seven teams in Europe before clinching an EPS berth, but now it is guaranteed at least eight.
Here’s how it breaks down, contingent on the outcomes of the FA Cup and final league standings:
- The team finishing in fifth place earns a spot in the Champions League.
- The sixth-placed team qualifies for the Europa League.
- The seventh-placed team secures entry into the Conference League.
The top five teams have distanced themselves in recent weeks, with Liverpool and Aston Villa currently sitting in fourth and fifth place, both on 58 points.
There lies an eight-point gap to Brighton in sixth, setting the stage for a battle for the remaining European positions. It’s still possible that the sixth-placed team could secure a route into the Champions League.
Brighton (50 points) faces a tight challenge, with only seven points separating them from 13th-placed Crystal Palace (43 points), who also hold a game in hand.
What if Arsenal wins the Champions League?
Arsenal is set to finish in the Premier League’s top four, so their victory in the Champions League wouldn’t alter the current allocation of spots.
Instead, the place reserved for the Champions League titleholder would default to the league winner with the best UEFA coefficient.
This potentially opens the door for a club like Rangers if they clinch the Scottish Premiership.
For the Premier League to gain a sixth Champions League place through this route, Arsenal would need to finish outside the top four, which won’t happen since they are up against Atletico Madrid in the semi-finals.
What if Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest win the Europa League?
Remember, the Europa League winner qualifies for the Champions League.
Aston Villa is now facing Nottingham Forest in the semi-finals, ensuring at least one Premier League team reaches the final.
If Villa triumphs in the Europa League while finishing in the top four, the situation remains unchanged for England’s European spots—there would still be five teams in the Champions League and a total of eight in Europe.
The Champions League berth allocated to the Europa League winners would then roll over to the club with the best UEFA coefficient in qualifying status, which could be Club Brugge.
However, if Villa does not finish in the top four, they would secure a sixth team for the Champions League:
- Villa wins Europa League
Villa’s finishing position will determine the overall allocation of European spots for the Premier League.
If they finish fifth, that spot is transferred to the sixth-placed team in the Premier League, thereby reducing the overall count while still offering a total of eight European positions.
Why must a Europa League position be forfeited? This aligns with how EPS is applied after all other conditions have been accounted for.
In this example, Aston Villa earns a Champions League berth yet finishes in a league spot typically qualifying for the Europa League, which must then be surrendered to another league.
For instance, La Liga’s Villarreal won a European trophy while finishing seventh, thus the league lost that position in the previous iteration of the Conference League.
So, if Villa ends up in fifth, the Premier League forfeits the Europa League spot.
Once again, we apply the EPS—it transfers to the sixth-place team, the first not included in the Champions League.
The Conference League position moves to seventh.
If Villa finishes sixth, it’s the Conference League place that gets forfeited, leaving eighth in line for the Europa League.
However, if Villa wins the Europa League while finishing below the typical domestic thresholds, it opens up the pathway for a ninth European spot.
What if Crystal Palace wins the Conference League?
Crystal Palace is set to face Shakhtar Donetsk in the Conference League semi-finals.
The Conference League winners will claim a place in the subsequent season’s Europa League.
Palace has a slight chance of qualifying for Europe through the Premier League as well.
If they secure the Conference League title, they would likely represent an extra English spot in the Europa League, pushing the total to at least nine teams in Europe.
If both Palace and Forest win their respective European titles, it creates the possibility of having ten English clubs competing internationally.
Palace trails Chelsea by only five points for the final European place and has a match in hand, meaning they must outperform multiple clubs to claim that position.
Should they reach seventh, it enables the eighth-placed team to claim the future Conference League spot.
What is the maximum number of English clubs in Europe next season?
Since Arsenal is expected to be among the top four, they are unable to add an additional spot by winning the Champions League.
This limits the potential for next season to a maximum of ten clubs:
- Four teams in the Champions League
- Two teams in the Europa League
- One team in the Conference League
- Potential spot for Forest (if they win Europa) or Villa (if outside the top six)
- Potential for Palace (if they win the Conference League) as well, if they finish outside the top six
At the season’s outset, a maximum of eleven is theoretically possible. This scenario would only occur if English clubs win all three European tournaments and finish outside the regular qualification spots.
The Impact of the FA Cup on European Spots
Chelsea will be competing against Manchester City in the FA Cup final on 16 May, with the victor securing a Europa League position.
For the European allocations from the Premier League to shift down one position, the FA Cup champions must be in the top seven.
This scenario will likely play out if City takes home the trophy at Wembley.
After accounting for the EPS, both sixth and seventh positions would secure places in the Europa League, while eighth would move into the Conference League.
If Chelsea clinches the FA Cup, their league finish will dictate the situation; they must rank in the top seven for the Conference League position to transfer to eighth.
Currently, they are in eighth, just one point shy of Bournemouth in seventh.
If Chelsea ends lower than eighth, they simply occupy the Europa League spot as FA Cup winners, leaving league placements intact.
As many clubs strive for that coveted fifth-place finish, the unfolding drama around European qualification promises to be thrilling.