As the knockout stages of all three European competitions begin, the competition for additional places in the Champions League heats up.
This season, UEFA will award European Performance Spots (EPS) to the two nations that excel collectively in the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League.
Consequently, a fifth-place finish in the Premier League could transform from a Europa League berth into a Champions League spot, as seen with Newcastle last season.
But will another English club secure this benefit?
Understanding European Performance Spots
To determine which nations are successful, UEFA assesses the overall achievements of clubs in all three competitions.
They calculate an average by dividing the total coefficient score by the number of clubs from each league participating in European tournaments.
For instance, if the Premier League has a total score of 185 and nine clubs in European competitions, the average would be 20.56.
The top two leagues based on this table receive an extra Champions League slot.
Every win in any competition earns two coefficient points, while a draw adds one point.
A crucial factor is the bonus points based on clubs’ standings in both the league phase and knockout rounds, which are significantly higher in the Champions League.
For example, teams finishing 25th to 36th in the Champions League receive six bonus points, despite being eliminated, while the top team in the Conference League, Strasbourg, only garners four points.
Furthermore, bonus points for advancing in knockout rounds are weighted differently: Champions League earns 1.5 points, Europa League gets 1 point, and Conference League receives 0.5 points.
Thus, it’s likely that a leading European league will secure the extra places each season due to their larger representation in the Champions League.
Current Standings
ENGLAND
England is the only nation with all nine teams still competing, making their position advantageous.
However, past seasons have shown that nothing is guaranteed, as England nearly secured an EPS slot in 2023-24 only to falter in the quarter-finals.
Success in the knockout stages will strengthen England’s position, as they have three active teams, trailing only Italy (five) among major leagues.
Newcastle has advanced to the Champions League Round of 16, Nottingham Forest holds a strong position after a 3-0 victory at Fenerbahce, and Crystal Palace played to a 1-1 draw away at Zrinjski Mostar.
As a measure of England’s lead, Portuguese clubs trail by approximately 13 wins, German teams by 16, Italians by 19, and Spanish sides by 22.
GERMANY
The Bundesliga is in a strong position with five clubs still competing for an EPS slot alongside England.
However, Borussia Dortmund’s loss to Atalanta after squandering a first-leg lead has left an opening.
Bayer Leverkusen advanced in the Champions League knockout round, while Stuttgart is well-placed in the Europa League.
Germany’s chances could be affected if Leverkusen meets Bayern Munich in the Round of 16.
SPAIN
With eight teams in Europe, Spain needed a strong showing but suffered setbacks as Villarreal and Athletic Club were knocked out of the Champions League.
Although six Spanish teams remain, each victory contributes less to their coefficient relative to competitors contending for the EPS.
Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, and Celta Vigo are in action, with Atletico and Real through in the Champions League, while Celta secured a 2-1 away win against PAOK in the Europa League.
ITALY
Serie A started slowly but remains a contender despite Napoli’s exit from the Champions League in January.
Italy has five teams in action, presenting a chance to enhance their score. However, Inter Milan fell in both legs to Bodo/Glimt, and Juventus lost to Galatasaray.
Atalanta managed to progress past Dortmund, while Bologna and Fiorentina hold leads in their matchups.
Nonetheless, challenges persist for Italy.
PORTUGAL
Portugal’s chances to make the top two seem minimal after Santa Clara’s early Conference League exit.
Though four Portuguese teams have advanced to the knockout phase, they must make significant runs to have a shot.
Benfica’s Champions League exit left them without points, complicating their prospects.
FRANCE
Ligue 1 has had a disappointing campaign, starting with Nice’s failure in Champions League qualifying and their subsequent Europa League elimination.
PSG’s victory over Monaco and Lille’s loss to Red Star has further diminished France’s chances.
POLAND
Poland’s position in the standings has been surprising, briefly appearing in the top two, but it is unlikely to last.
All four of Poland’s teams are competing in the Conference League, with over a third of their points coming from qualifying rounds.
Fortunately, the remaining teams are at different ends of the Conference League bracket.
GREECE
With Olympiacos knocked out of the Champions League, Greece is down to three teams and trailing the leading nations significantly.
However, all remaining teams will play in February to boost their totals, but none have secured a win yet.
CYPRUS
Surprisingly, Cyprus features higher on the table thanks to Pafos’ inaugural Champions League appearance.
Nonetheless, with only two teams active in the Conference League, Cyprus is not a contender for the EPS.
DENMARK
Only FC Midtjylland remains for Denmark, which is now mathematically out of contention.
Important Upcoming Dates
Last season, confirmation of the Premier League’s additional Champions League place came on April 8.
This season’s exceptional performance from English clubs might result in an earlier announcement.
Key dates to remember include:
24-26 February: Second legs of the knockout play-off rounds for all three competitions, eliminating 24 more teams.
27 February: Draws for the knockout rounds, establishing the path and determining each league’s maximum coefficient score, including potential matchups between teams from the same or rival leagues.
17-19 March: Second-leg matches for the Round of 16 occur, eliminating another 24 teams.
14-16 April: Quarter-final matches conclude, potentially confirming the additional places.
5-7 May: Semi-final second legs take place, with finals scheduled for the end of the month.
Premier League Run for Champions League Spots
In the Premier League, Arsenal leads with 61 points, five clear of Manchester City (56), while Aston Villa follows in third with 51 points.
Manchester United holds fourth place with 48 points, and currently, the additional Champions League spot would go to fifth-placed Chelsea (45). Liverpool is right behind in sixth place with 45 points.
This article comes from the BBC Sport’s Ask Me Anything team.
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