Press and possess: Spains…

Spain was once known for its struggle on the international soccer stage, despite a history of producing exceptional club-level talent. They enjoyed a surprising triumph with the Euro 1964 title, buoyed by players like Chus Pereda and Luis Suárez, but in the following 42 years, they only managed to advance past the quarterfinals in a single major tournament. In contrast, over the last 18 years, they’ve captured four significant titles, and on Sunday, they’ll compete in the FIFA World Cup final, aiming for a fifth title in just as many appearances. (For those who consider the UEFA Nations League a major tournament, that would add another title and three additional finals to this count.)

Spain has reached the World Cup final by contrasting with Argentina. They don’t complicate their game; they simply control the ball and excel in defense, steadily working towards scoring. Their scoring can vary in timing – at times they find the net early against and Saudi Arabia as early as the 10th minute, or they might need a late-game push, like Belgium and Portugal in the dying minutes. Yet even in tight moments, the feeling remains that Spain wouldn’t lose.

Despite a challenging start, and with underdog surprises like France and the Argentine penchant for drama, Spain, dubbed the pre-tournament favorites, quietly navigated their way to the final. While Argentina boasts the GOAT, France shines with flair, and England benefits from the Premier League, Spain stands as favorites due to their flawless defense, expertly choreographed system, and exceptional tactical leadership heading into the World Cup final.

Near-Perfect Defense

There are two primary methods for achieving solid defensive statistics: establish a proficient possession game that keeps opponents away from the goal or allow long-range shots while ensuring no clean chances are available. Many successful underdog teams take this cluttered approach, allowing foes plenty of distance efforts but not permitting any clear shots.

Spain, however, has mastered a third option during this World Cup, excelling in both methodologies.

Spain leads among all 48 participating World Cup teams in both shots allowed per possession and expected goals (xG) conceded per shot.

Their pressing game is exceptional, ranking first in the percentage of their possessions initiated in the attacking third (12.1%), third in high turnovers forced per 90 minutes (12.9), and third in passes allowed per defensive action (9.0). Their approach to defense starts at the front, with center forward Mikel Oyarzabal and winger Álex Baena, who are not selected solely for their scoring abilities. With a strong possession game (ranking third at 63.7% possession), they maintain a high defensive line, successfully drawing opponents offside (3.3 times per 90 minutes, fifth overall).

Considering that all 26 players on the squad hail from clubs within Europe’s elite leagues, including a significant contingent from Barcelona, it’s logical for Spain to excel in this area. Key players such as Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, midfielder Pedri, and center back Pau Cubarsí exemplify this approach. Moreover, defensive midfielder Rodri, who has notably performed as top player at Manchester City under Pep Guardiola, firmly strengthens this aspect of Spain’s game.

With a strategic blend of possession and transition defense, Spain significantly minimized their opponents’ chances throughout the tournament. In their semifinal against France, they managed to intervene swiftly during transitions, effectively countering France’s attempts at exploiting space.

While Spain ranks 46th in average defensive interventions per game (55.4), typically due to their possession, they adjusted this strategy and made an impressive 71 interventions against France, showcasing their defensive capabilities against one of the most powerful attacking teams in the world. The result? France concluded the game with only 10 shot attempts, none higher than 0.06 xG, making this performance arguably one of the best of the tournament.

Turning Underperformance into Success

It’s no surprise that this group of defenders has risen to the occasion – they play or have played for some of the top clubs globally, including Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City, Barcelona, Chelsea, and Tottenham.

However, the individual recent performances of players like Rodri, who has worked hard to recapture his pre-injury form, or Laporte’s mixed success at Al Nassr, as well as the overall lack of collective brilliance from forwards like Oyarzabal and Baena raises questions. Despite Yamal’s impressive contributions, Spain ranks only 13th in the tournament for goals per 90 minutes (1.86) and 18th in xG per shot (0.15). Yet, their goal differential (+1.7 per game) and xG differential (+1.6) place them at the top because their players are effectively integrated into the overall team philosophy.

De la Fuente emphasized that this model is customized for the players they have: “We know exactly what they can offer and how they can enhance this style of play, but the credit belongs to the players.”

Rodri has truly returned to his best form during the tournament. Not only is he crucial defensively, but he also leads in creating chances and possession metrics, demonstrating his vital role in the team’s success.

“Rodri is the axis of the team,” stated De la Fuente. “He is the positional reference point who excels in all facets of play, breaks through lines effortlessly, and maintains balance defensively while reclaiming possession.”

A Leader in Touch

It’s challenging to envision a candidate who embodies Spain’s football philosophy better than De la Fuente, who has spent 13 years within the Spanish federation, curating and evolving their tactical framework. De la Fuente, a former player of remarkable talent himself, experienced Spanish football from a more defensive viewpoint before transitioning at the management level.

He expresses his pride in seeing his team bring joy to the nation, often emphasizing the value of camaraderie in achieving collective goals.

Before their semifinal against France, he confidently asserted, “We faced one of the best national teams in the world, but they were up against the best team in the world.”

Not a Sure Win

Despite their outstanding defense and technical prowess, Spain faced challenges during their run, including a draw with Cape Verde and late-game ties in the knockout stages. Their offense has been inconsistent, and goalkeeper Simón has displayed moments of vulnerability.

No team is invincible, and in the final, Spain must contend with an Argentina squad that, while sometimes shaky, has proven capable of remarkable last-minute victories. Spain currently holds a statistical edge with a 56.3% chance of winning according to Opta, and a 58.8% chance based on betting odds, but these odds underline just how tight the contest may be.

Yet, considering Argentina’s pattern of dramatic finishes, it is tough to bet against a team with the best defensive record, a top-notch midfielder in Rodri, a key winger in Yamal, and an unbeaten streak stretching 37 matches. Spain has diminished uncertainty in their game and maximized their roster’s strengths, positioning themselves just 90 minutes shy of a potential second World Cup title.