Spain lacked a Messi,…

Since the final whistle of the World Cup in New York—okay, East Rutherford, New Jersey—on Sunday, I’ve found myself grappling with two conflicting thoughts: (1) Spain was not the most talented team at this World Cup, yet (2) Spain might represent the best international soccer team we’ve ever witnessed.

This isn’t merely a case of recency bias. Elo ratings, which track the history of international matches, show that Spain holds the highest rating ever. The primary reason? They haven’t lost a match since March 2024, achieving the longest unbeaten streak in men’s international soccer history.

But we all saw their performance. Coming into the semifinals, France was the favorite with what many considered to be the three top attacking talents in the world. Yet Spain dominated, conceding just 10 shots and no quality chances.

In the finals, they similarly neutralized Argentina and Lionel Messi, the reigning champions and a player often touted as the greatest of all time. Spain displayed tactical mastery that left the competition gasping.

Inarguably, Spain boasted the best overall squad at the World Cup. But what made this combination successful?

Spain’s starting fullbacks, Pedro Porro and Marc Cucurella, were average performers within the Premier League this past season, playing for teams that struggled significantly. The senior center-back, Aymeric Laporte, had moved to the less competitive Saudi Pro League. Meanwhile, Pau Cubarsí, the tournament’s standout young player, has had an inconsistent start with Barcelona.

As for the attackers: Álex Baena frequently played as a substitute for Atlético Madrid, while Mikel Oyarzabal hasn’t hit double digits in non-penalty goals over the last eight seasons in LaLiga. While Lamine Yamal showed potential, he concluded the World Cup with just one goal and zero assists, contrasting sharply with other countries whose players were among the tournament’s top scorers.

Should a team that lacked standout talent in both defense and attack emerge champions and outperform more celebrated squads?

Upon further reflection, I recognized that Spain’s success aligns with a broader trend in modern World Cups. We can label this as the “Rodri Theory,” named after this year’s Golden Ball winner: the team with the most effective midfield often wins.

Understanding How the Pace of Play Influences Team Talent Requirements

In today’s club football, the midfield is often undervalued.

Don’t believe me? Consider how much each Premier League team invests in different positions:

• Goalkeeper: $6.55 million
• Defense: $29.9 million
• Midfield: $27.9 million
• Attack: $28.6 million

When solely considering star players, the disparity in spending is even greater:

• Goalkeeper: $11.6 million
• Defense: $54 million
• Midfield: $47.1 million
• Attack: $56 million

This correlates well with the analytical perspective that evaluates the sport through goal probability—assessing how much a player contributes to scoring chances or prevents goals. Viewed through this lens, midfield activity may seem less impactful.

For instance, dribbling past an opponent in the penalty area significantly enhances scoring chances, while doing so in midfield requires additional actions before a shooting opportunity materializes.

In international soccer, however, the dynamics alter considerably. The difficulty in organizing coherent pressing or creating attacking patterns stems from limited player selection and restricted practice time. More simply, international matches occur at a slower pace.

In fact, at the recent World Cup, the average possession lasted 28.1 seconds, 2.5 seconds longer than in the last Premier League season, influenced partly by the hot weather but indicative of a recurring trend.

Historically, possession time has fluctuated since 1966:

This graph showcases an evolution towards a possession-focused game. Early on, passing was sidelined in favor of less effective strategies, but tactical advancements shaped longer possessions. The game quickened post-1986 due to rule changes, but since 2006, it has exhibited a downward trend, often attributed to the Barcelona style cultivated by Pep Guardiola that has influenced youth coaching.

In faster-paced games, individual talent, particularly among attackers and defenders, has a greater impact, allowing players to utilize their creativity and athleticism. This paradigm shifts as the tempo slows; midfielders take center stage, dictating the pace and structure of the game.

This delivered insight aligns with a repeated observation: since 2006, the squad with the strongest midfield has secured victory in every World Cup.

Common Traits Among Past World Cup Champions: Dominant Midfields

When Italy clinched the World Cup in 2006, they were mainly celebrated for their defense, particularly owing to Fabio Cannavaro’s Ballon d’Or win.

However, their midfield was equally formidable. France’s midfield trio—Patrick Vieira, Claude Makelélé, and Zinedine Zidane—were aging, while Italy’s prime talents—Andrea Pirlo, Gennaro Gattuso, and Francesco Totti—controlled the center of the pitch.

Although Pirlo achieved fame for his playmaking later, he was the only player in 2006 to secure three Man of the Match awards, demonstrating the power of influence both he and Gattuso had on the game.

Fast forward four years—Spain’s dominance was largely defined by their exceptional midfield. The iconic Barcelona trio of Sergio Busquets, Xavi, and Andrés Iniesta formed a potent combination, complemented by Xabi Alonso’s deep-lying playmaking.

In 2013, when Germany secured their title, their midfield anchors Toni Kroos, Bastian Schweinsteiger, and Philipp Lahm, along with Mesut Özil and Sami Khedira, played instrumental roles throughout the tournament.

Memorable moments of the 2018 World Cup revolved around Kylian Mbappé, but France’s achievement stemmed from a dominant double pivot featuring N’Golo Kanté and Paul Pogba, blending defensive tenacity with offensive flair.

During Argentina’s 2022 triumph, Messi’s elevation in potential wasn’t the sole reason for success; rather it was their evolving midfield structure, with promising talents like Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernández able to thrive, outperforming their predecessors.

Spain, in their final matchup, outperformed this trio, commanding control with Rodri, the 2022 Ballon d’Or winner, and Fabián Ruiz, both superb in distribution and defensive duties.

Spain’s depth also showed during the final as Luis de la Fuente rotated his entire midfield without losing effectiveness, showcasing the strength in his team’s depth with players like Pedri, Mikel Merino, and Martín Zubimendi.

Interestingly, who presented the most significant challenge to Spain in the knockout rounds? Portugal boasted a formidable midfield, yet their reliance on a 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo subdued their potential.

And France? Their midfield struggles, with 31-year-old Adrien Rabiot at the helm, were a critical point of weakness.

As we approach the next World Cup in 2030, I’ll be reflecting on the Rodri Theory—recognizing the importance of solidifying midfield strength, despite the allure of star attackers or revered coaches.

While predicting the next winner remains elusive, history suggests that the next champion will be the nation that boasts the finest players in midfield.