As the knockout stage of the World Cup begins, France and Argentina, both having advanced through the group stage with perfect records, lead the championship betting odds. Meanwhile, the United States’ recent successes are increasing pressure on sportsbooks with each victory.
According to DraftKings odds as of Sunday morning, France is the favorite to win the World Cup at +350, closely followed by the defending champions Argentina at +430. Both teams have surpassed Spain in the odds since the tournament’s start, with La Roja and England now at +700.
Brazil’s odds have shifted from +950 to 12-1 since the tournament commenced, although they have attracted some betting action at these longer odds, as noted by Johnny Avello, director of DraftKings sportsbook. Portugal (13-1) and the Netherlands (15-1) also present varying levels of liability for the sportsbooks, according to bookmakers at DraftKings, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetMGM.
However, the greatest liability for American sportsbooks is undoubtedly the United States, which has seen their odds improve from 60-1 to 30-1 after winning Group D.
“The USA’s impressive start has prompted a wave of bets on them to win the tournament outright. They have become our most-backed option and represent a significant liability for us,” Mark Bickerdike, Caesars head of soccer, told ESPN via email. “While a deep run by the USMNT might not be ideal for profitability, it would greatly enhance engagement.”
The United States’ victories against Paraguay and Australia were particularly challenging for sportsbooks, with many identifying those matches as the most heavily wagered soccer events in their history. Their loss to Türkiye in the final group stage game provided some relief for the books, with BetMGM labeling it their most profitable match of the tournament to date.
The impressive performances of star players like Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, and Erling Haaland have also caused caution among sportsbooks, as bettors are cashing in on their outstanding displays. Messi and Mbappé are the frontrunners for the Golden Boot at -110 and +275, respectively, according to DraftKings, and all three players pose varying levels of liability for the top goal scorer award at major sportsbooks.
“On the revenue side, we have good days and days where we take a significant hit,” Avello said. “Those losses typically happen when the USA wins, or when the Netherlands, Argentina, and France all secure victories alongside standout performances from Mbappé, Messi, and Haaland.”
Overall, the 2026 World Cup has proven to be beneficial for sportsbook engagement, with multiple operators reporting that it has met or surpassed their wagering expectations.
“When everything settles, this might rival the college basketball tournament,” Avello remarked.