This result could really showcase a team as a potential contender for the European title. Defeating Real Madrid at the Bernabeu might signal that a team is capable of overcoming them in high-stakes matches, whether in finals, semi-finals, or quarter-finals. However, few understand Real’s winning mentality in critical moments better than Pep Guardiola.
Guardiola’s response to Manchester City’s 2-1 victory in Madrid was a reminder that they must improve their performance in the knockout rounds of the competition. Fortunately for them, their manager believes that they need only four more points to secure a place in the last 16, which would help avoid the playoff round that saw them knocked out by Real last season. Yet, while Guardiola is known for his high standards, it could be that the realist in him acknowledged, “In the last stages, you have to be better.”
Looking at their current form and position—having won the championship in 2023 but now sitting fourth in the standings—City still appear among the favorites. However, Guardiola felt that the match painted a different picture: Real were dominating at 1-0; would City have been able to recover from a 2-0 deficit?
The game turned into a celebration for City’s makeshift full-back, who started by dealing with challenging opponents. Nico O’Reilly opened the scoring for City despite initially struggling against Rodrygo, while Matheus Nunes appeared outmatched by Vinicius Junior. Guardiola has successfully utilized centre-backs as full-backs, such as Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji, yet they provided a solid defensive presence.
Currently, the team relies on full-backs who lack some of those advantages, and their resilience appears inconsistent. Just recently, City surrendered a 2-0 lead to Leeds and four goals against Fulham. While they managed to withstand Real’s late pressure, it’s worth noting that they have conceded 11 goals in the last six matches.
Guardiola’s new squad showcases an exciting style, yet it lacks the control exhibited by their predecessors. Though he has revamped the midfield, he hasn’t recruited anyone with the natural ball retention skills of Ilkay Gundogan or David Silva. New signings Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders are competing for the final spot in midfield but possess different strengths—one as a dribbler and the other as a runner.
Only Kylian Mbappe has more goals in the Champions League than Erling Haaland this season (Reuters)
While Guardiola has developed a dynamic midfield, it lacks security. The balance has shifted as Jeremy Doku has made significant strides and Phil Foden rejuvenates his career. At times, Nico Gonzalez seems overworked at the midfield’s base, which, while contributing to a thrilling style of play, compromises City’s ability to control games through consistent possession. The aggressive full-backs perform better on the attack than when forced to defend.
Moreover, City’s backbone is composed of Champions League winners: Erling Haaland, Foden, Bernardo Silva, Rodri, and Ruben Dias have earned their medals with the club, while Gianluigi Donnarumma received his at Paris Saint-Germain. The newer and less experienced players predominantly occupy the flanks.
Guardiola’s confidence that City will improve for the spring knockout stages may hinge on Rodri’s return. Although it remains risky to depend on his fitness, the prospect of him being back to Ballon d’Or-winning form for crucial matches offers hope. While Gonzalez has impressed this season, he does not replicate Rodri’s influence.
Without Rodri, Pep Guardiola’s side have struggled to keep control through possession (AFP/Getty)
Another source of optimism rests with Haaland, who trails only Kylian Mbappe in goals in this season’s competition. While it’s simplistic to attribute City’s victory over Real to Haaland’s presence—especially given their loss to Bayer Leverkusen when he was benched—it does highlight how the team appears closer to the rest of the competition than they did during their peak.
This unpredictability means that City’s progression to the quarter-finals might not be as assured as it previously seemed, particularly after last season. Guardiola was also aware that Real was dealing with injuries on Wednesday. If they were to meet again in the final, the dynamics could be drastically different.
Unlike City, Real Madrid excels in navigating their way through difficult situations. City has often been labeled the best team in Europe during seasons they haven’t won the Champions League—sometimes while Real triumphed. Now, they are not at their peak, possibly not even in the top few teams. However, if they can conquer Real at the Bernabeu, it could signify what they might achieve moving forward.