The Champions League is now at its midpoint. Following the first four matches, tonight marks the commencement of the second phase of the single group stage. Italian teams have underperformed thus far, with the exception of Inter Milan. For the Nerazzurri, who have achieved a perfect score so far, the real challenge begins now. Their upcoming four matches will pit them against Atlético Madrid, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Borussia Dortmund—an intense lineup.
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But how many points are necessary to qualify? According to Football Meets Data, teams need to achieve 10 points to secure a playoff spot (with a 98.6% probability), although 9 points could suffice (73.2%).
As for automatic qualification, the current projections suggest that 18 points would guarantee advancement to the round of 16 (99.6%). The chances remain high with 17 points (95.3%), but drop to 50% with 16 points—the same number Aston Villa had last year to avoid the playoffs.
đź“Š Who advances to the round of 16?
What are the prospects for the Italian squads? Opta has provided a forecast along with its final rankings. Leading the way is Arsenal, with an expected 20.09 points, followed closely by Bayern (19.62) and Man City (18.20). Inter sits in fourth place with 16.86 points, while Liverpool, PSG, Real Madrid, and Barcelona also look set to qualify directly for the knockout phase.
SOURCE: OPTA
For Juventus, Napoli, and Atalanta, the path to the playoffs is still open. With 12.27 expected points, Atalanta is projected to finish 15th, three spots ahead of the reigning Italian champions, who are at 10.45 points. Juventus, however, finds themselves in a precarious position in 22nd place with just 9.41 expected points.
SOURCE: OPTA
Looking ahead to May, Arsenal is currently the favorite to win the tournament with a 23% likelihood. Inter stands at just 3.15%, while the other three Italian teams have minimal chances: Atalanta at 0.19%, Napoli at 0.32%, and Juventus at 0.07%.
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The journey to Budapest is undoubtedly daunting. Ultimately, it’s up to the teams to defy the odds on the pitch.
This article was translated into English using Artificial Intelligence. To read the original Italian version, click here.
📸 ISABELLA BONOTTO – AFP or licensors