The challenge is as old as time. It presents a dilemma for Scotland head coach Steve Clarke as the World Cup approaches.
Scotland’s recent performances have been disappointing, with the team failing to score in their last two matches against Japan and Ivory Coast. Key players like Che Adams and Lyndon Dykes have been present but lack potency in front of goal, despite their hard work and dedication.
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Scotland’s qualifying campaign saw some impressive individual goals, notably from Scott McTominay and Kenny McLean, along with an incredible effort from Kieran Tierney. However, it was evident that Clarke’s preferred strikers managed only seven shots on target in six matches combined.
Adams submitted six of those shots, scoring two goals over 446 minutes, while Dykes recorded one attempt on target in 171 minutes and was able to find the back of the net. While he deserves credit for that, it raises questions about the lack of service provided to them.
Should the blame be placed on surrounding players, or are the strikers failing to position themselves correctly or convert the limited chances they receive? Regardless of the perspective, this situation represents a significant concern for the Scotland team.
Can Clarke adapt his attacking options? Is he willing to do so? And if he is, is he looking in the right direction?
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Clarke has guided Scotland to two European Championships, where they managed only three goals across six matches, including one own goal against Germany and another that was deflected from a Scott McTominay shot against Switzerland.
Only one player, Callum McGregor, managed to score directly in Clarke’s first European tournament, netting against Croatia.
The worry now is whether Clarke is willing to consider changes, given his tendency to stick to his established routines.
Typically, he would field five or six forwards/wingers in his squad, including Che Adams, Lawrence Shankland, Lyndon Dykes, George Hirst, Tommy Conway, and Ben Gannon-Doak. He has faith in them, and it wouldn’t be surprising if these are the players he selects.
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The hope, though perhaps naive, is that he remains open to adjusting a position or two within this group.
Understanding the level of competition can be challenging. How do goals scored in the Scottish Premiership compare to those in the English Championship or Italy‘s Serie A? And how do you weigh the strengths of the teams involved?
For instance, how does a goal scored by Shankland against the Old Firm compare to one scored by Adams against a current sixth-placed Roma team?
To simplify, if you were to create a ranking of Clarke’s forward options based on current season performances—focusing on goals scored, minutes per goal, and goals per shots—this is how it would shape up:
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1. Ross Stewart of Southampton. 2. Oli McBurnie of Hull City. 3. Lawrence Shankland of Heart of Midlothian. 4. George Hirst of Ipswich Town. 5. Kieron Bowie of Hibernian. Now 6. Che Adams of Torino. 7. Tommy Conway of Middlesbrough. 8. Lyndon Dykes of Birmingham City and Charlton Athletic.
Recently, on Wednesday evening, Stewart netted during Southampton’s match, placing them fourth in the English Championship and just three points from an automatic promotion position to the Premier League.
This marked his sixth goal in 11 appearances this season, and despite suffering from injuries that sidelined him for 16 matches, he seems to have regained his form.
Scoring for the winner that eliminated Fulham from the FA Cup in March, Stewart continued to shine by scoring against Arsenal in April.
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Looking ahead to Saturday, Stewart is set to participate in the semi-final against Manchester City. It’s surprising that he hasn’t garnered attention as a potential squad player for the World Cup.
This season, he’s managed to score every 120 minutes with a remarkable shots-per-goal ratio of 3.2 and a conversion rate of 31%. When in play, he has been one of the most efficient scorers in the league.
Clarke values loyalty to players who contributed to the team’s World Cup qualification, but Stewart may bring the ability to help Scotland extend their stay in the tournament.
It’s time to prioritize players based on current form rather than past achievements.
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When McBurnie found the net for Hull against Leicester on Tuesday, it was his 16th goal in 37 matches this season, impressive considering he also contributed seven assists, despite missing two months due to injury.
Analyzing further, McBurnie has scored every 182.9 minutes with a goal from every 4.3 shots and a conversion rate of 23.5% throughout the season.
Recently, he reached out to Clarke about his potential inclusion in the World Cup squad, but according to McBurnie, Clarke’s response lacked encouragement. The head coach must be cautious not to dismiss potential players without consideration.
Many who recall McBurnie’s tenure with Scotland may align with Clarke’s concerns regarding McBurnie’s past performances. Over 16 caps (with only seven starts) and nearly 13 hours on the pitch, Scotland only managed a single goal while he was there. His commitment to the national team was also called into question at one point.
Fairly or not, it might be hard to find a Scottish fan advocating for his return. Redemption is not easily granted.
It’s been five years since his last appearance for Scotland. Perhaps he has matured as both a player and a person.
While it may seem unlikely for him to don the national jersey again, Clarke’s reluctance to consider Stewart and McBurnie overlooks two players in excellent form, scoring consistently. What more can they do to earn a chance?
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Shankland, ranked third, is a sure bet for the squad and a leading candidate for a starting position if recent performances are taken into account. Hirst, who ranked fourth, showed promise in the friendly against Ivory Coast, displaying hunger and power.
With 10 goals in 41 appearances for Ipswich, currently in second place in the Championship, Hirst is performing at a high level. Promotion to the Premier League is within reach if Ipswich maintains their performance.
Hirst’s conversion rate stands at 14.7%, trailing Shankland’s 18.7% but ahead of Bowie’s 13.6% and Adams’ 13.2%. Conway and Dykes have even lower conversion rates. Dykes’ case appears weak based on current form alone.
Luckily for him, his chances likely rest favorably in Clarke’s eyes.
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It’s likely that Clarke has a strong idea of his final 26-man roster, with Stewart and McBurnie probably excluded.
Statistically, they might rank one and two, yet in Clarke’s evaluations, they are likely positioned much lower, if considered at all.
It may be time for him to reassess. The proof is available if he chooses to analyze the statistics.