Scotland is facing a precarious situation regarding their World Cup aspirations after finishing third in Group C, following a 3-0 loss to Brazil. Their progression now depends on results outside of their control.
Under the guidance of Steve Clarke, Scotland registered a victory against Haiti in their first match but suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to Morocco. The disheartening loss to Brazil left them with just three points and a goal difference of -3, leaving them anxiously waiting to see if they will secure a spot in the knockout stage.
Only the eight best third-placed teams across 12 groups will advance, meaning Scotland needs at least four other teams to finish third with fewer than three points or a worse goal difference than their current -3 in order to qualify.
The Scots may not learn their fate until the final matches of the group stage conclude on Sunday, which includes the results from Group J. A recent victory by South Africa over South Korea has already dealt a significant blow to their chances.
How Can Scotland Reach the Knockout Stage?
After their defeat to Brazil, Scotland’s chances of progressing to the next stage—a first for the team in knockout competition—are beyond their control.
In the coming days, they will rely on certain outcomes across various groups to secure a spot in the last-32, requiring at least four favorable results.
Here is the current standing of the third-placed teams:
Thursday, 25 June
Upcoming Matches
- Curacao vs Ivory Coast (Group E) – 9pm BST
- Ecuador vs Germany (Group E) – 9pm BST
- Japan vs Sweden (Group F) – 12am BST
- Tunisia vs Netherlands (Group F) – 12am BST
- Paraguay vs Australia (Group D) – 3am BST
- Turkey vs USA (Group D) – 3am BST
What Scotland Needs:
In Group E, both Ecuador and Curacao, currently on one point, face Germany and Ivory Coast respectively. If they fail to win, their final totals will be below Scotland’s three points. Therefore, Scotland needs both Ecuador and Curacao to lose.
In Group F, Sweden holds three points and faces Japan, who are second with four. Japan must win by enough to push Sweden’s goal difference (currently at 0) below Scotland’s (-3). Scots need Japan to win by at least four goals.
In Group D, Australia and Paraguay, currently second and third, will clash in their final match. If either team loses, they finish with three points, while a draw puts both above Scotland. Thus, Scotland should hope for Australia to win by two goals.
Scott McKenna was caught in possession leading to Brazil’s opening goal (PA)
Friday, 25 June
Upcoming Matches
- Norway vs France (Group I) – 8pm BST
- Senegal vs Iraq (Group I) – 8pm BST
- Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia (Group H) – 1am BST
- Uruguay vs Spain (Group H) – 1am BST
- Egypt vs Iran (Group G) – 4am BST
- New Zealand vs Belgium (Group G) – 4am BST
What Scotland Needs:
In Group I, a draw between Senegal and Iraq would be ideal. For Iraq to qualify, they must win by three goals; for Senegal, even a one-goal win suffices. Therefore, Scotland requires a draw or a narrow win for Iraq.
In Group H, while it’s likely that either Cape Verde or Saudi Arabia will end with more points than Scotland, a win by Spain against Uruguay could mean the third-placed team finishes with just two points. Scotland needs a victory for Spain.
In Group G, Egypt’s victory would ensure that the third-placed team, either Iran or Belgium, will have fewer than Scotland’s three points. Thus, Scotland needs an Egypt win.
Saturday, 26 June
Upcoming Matches
- Croatia vs Ghana (Group L) – 10pm BST
- Panama vs England (Group L) – 10pm BST
- Colombia vs Portugal (Group K) – 12.30am BST
- DR Congo vs Uzbekistan (Group K) – 12.30am BST
- Algeria vs Austria (Group J) – 3am BST
- Jordan vs Argentina (Group J) – 3am BST
What Scotland Needs:
In Group L, if Croatia secures a point against Ghana, the third-place finisher will surpass Scotland’s points. Hence, Scotland requires Ghana to defeat Croatia by at least three goals.
In Group K, should DR Congo and Uzbekistan face off, a draw would be favorable, or a narrow win for Uzbekistan with a -7 goal difference. If DR Congo wins, they finish with four points, which isn’t advantageous for Scotland. Scotland needs DR Congo to not win.
In Group J, Austria and Algeria, who both have three points, will compete. Given Algeria’s inferior goal difference, Scotland requires an Austria win by at least two goals.
Scotland fans are now facing an anxious wait to see if their team qualifies for the knockout rounds (Reuters)
Current Group Stage Standings:
Potential Knockout Stage Matches for Scotland
Several potential scenarios will dictate Scotland’s path in the knockout rounds if they manage to qualify. As it stands, finishing third in Group C, they will likely face Group A winners, Mexico, in the last-32.
If Scotland triumph in that match, they may encounter England in the round of 16, assuming England tops Group L and prevails over Algeria in the last-32. Should Scotland manage to surpass their rivals, they could potentially meet Brazil again in the quarter-finals, or possibly face Japan, Ivory Coast, or Norway.