Can Chelsea Climb from...

Chelsea ended the Premier League season 10 years ago in 10th place, yet astonishingly claimed the championship just one year later under the guidance of new manager Antonio Conte.

Now, after finishing in the same mid-table position last season, missing out on European competition yet again with Xabi Alonso at the helm, can the Blues replicate that success?

A Familiar Scenario

Chelsea’s record for the 2025-26 Premier League season mirrors their mid-table finish under interim manager Guus Hiddink a decade earlier.

They ended the season with a goal difference identical to that of 2015-16, scoring one more goal while conceding one more, finishing just two points ahead.

At that time, few would have anticipated that, having finished 31 points behind champions Leicester and trailing teams like West Ham and Stoke, Chelsea would be lifting the Premier League trophy the very next season.

After an initial stint with a back four, a 3-0 loss to Arsenal prompted Conte to switch to a back three, which sparked a remarkable 13-match winning streak.

This tactical adjustment is something Alonso might consider for this season, considering his successful tenure with Bayer Leverkusen, where he led them to an unbeaten Bundesliga title in 2023-24 using a three-at-the-back approach.

That stunning run propelled Chelsea to a commanding position in the Premier League, allowing them to finish 18 matches ahead of their tally from 2015-16 and clinch the title with 93 points.

It would be a monumental challenge for Alonso’s team to increase their points by 43, especially as that would set the record for the highest points improvement for a title-winning team in Premier League history (Leicester improved by 40 points the previous season).

However, they might not need to reach that high. While Arsenal is expected to have a stronger title defense than Leicester, their points total from last season was the second-lowest needed to secure the Premier League since Claudio Ranieri’s squad achieved it a decade ago.

The standards for championship-winning teams have noticeably dropped in recent seasons, moving away from the demanding levels set during the Guardiola-Klopp era—where even 97 points weren’t enough in the 2018-19 season—suggesting Chelsea may not have to match the 93 points from their Conte-led triumph.

Underperformance and Potential

Although Chelsea must improve significantly to challenge for the title, their performance last season was not as dire as their 10th-place finish might indicate.

Using expected goal metrics, Chelsea was the fourth-most dominant team in the league (fifth when penalties are excluded).

The challenge lay in their finishing; they scored eight goals fewer than expected, with only Crystal Palace and Wolves finishing worse.

Strangely, most of this underperformance occurred in just five games in March and April under Liam Rosenior, when despite taking 73 shots worth 5.5 xG, they lost five consecutive league matches without scoring—a first in 114 years, prompting Rosenior’s departure.

Whether it was simply poor finishing, bad luck, or another factor, it’s likely that Chelsea will not experience such a drastic dip this season.

The Advantage of No European Football

With their league standing, Chelsea will not compete in European competitions this season, which may present some unexpected benefits. While teams of Chelsea’s stature naturally aim for continental play, focusing on weekly matches can provide a competitive edge.

Since the ‘Big Six’—Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd, and Tottenham—all finished in the top six for the first time in 2010-11, nine of these teams have found success without European commitments, with Chelsea and Tottenham set to join them this season.

Most of these teams have improved their league standings, on average earning 16 more points and rising five positions compared to the previous year.

Conte’s Chelsea took full advantage of this scenario, winning the title, while Liverpool nearly clinched their first Premier League trophy in 2013-14, gaining 23 additional points after a seventh-place finish the year before. They ultimately missed out by just two points to Manchester City.

Manchester United also made significant improvements last season, accruing 29 more points than in 2024-25 to secure a third-place finish, having previously languished in 15th place with just 42 points.

Alonso’s Proven Track Record

While Chelsea’s rise under Antonio Conte was remarkable, Alonso’s success with Bayer Leverkusen in 2023-24 shows he is capable of similar transformations.

When he took over in October 2022, Leverkusen was in the relegation zone, but he led them to a sixth-place finish that season with 50 points—the same total as Chelsea managed in both 2015-16 and last season (noting that Bundesliga teams play four games fewer).

In his first full season, Leverkusen remarkably increased their points haul by 40 in 2023-24, just three short of Conte’s Chelsea, clinching their first Bundesliga title without a single defeat.

Only two teams in Premier League history—Leicester in 2015-16 and Chelsea the following year—have finished outside the top three and then won the title in the next season, making it a remarkable feat if Chelsea were to achieve it again.

However, with a team that may be better than their previous standing suggests, coupled with the absence of European football and a new manager who has demonstrated his ability to effect significant change, the prospects for Chelsea this season are intriguing.

Can Chelsea Climb from…